The West vs. Eastern Europe: A Comparison of Excess Mortality Curves

TOP CHART – WESTERN COUNTRIES

Introduction of 5G Systems
During the actual rollout phase of 5G systems [Western world: March–April 2020; Eastern Europe: starting in October 2020], 5G technology was introduced in densely populated or heavily visited areas, such as major cities and metropolitan areas of various kinds. These are areas that complicate the system rollout phase due to the large number of existing and new cellular base stations, as well as a large number of additional RF systems—that is, environments with a high degree of complexity in terms of cellular RF bands and other RF sources—and, of course, customers’ increasing quality requirements regarding system bandwidth, response times, accessibility, and coverage.

Start-up Periods 1 & 2
The launch periods (UP) of the 5G system are clearly reflected in the mortality rates (EMRate) of the reported countries, with an explosive increase in the number of deaths [among the elderly and those in poor health] during “UP 1” — 4G+/5G rollout in major cities and heavily trafficked metropolitan areas — only to surge again during “UP 2” with a slightly altered 4G/5G rollout focus — cities and key hubs.

General Mortality Correlation [UP 1 & 2]
In the months leading up to [Jan–Feb 2020] the launch of the 5G system for end users, EMRate was generally very low and declining in most Western countries, only to skyrocket during the initial launch/setup period of the 5G infrastructure.

The lower excess mortality rates (EMRate) between “UP 1” and “UP 2” are due to a shift in the focus of network expansion from the rollout of 4G+/5G nodes to the installation/upgrade of new 4G/5G hardware and infrastructure [preparations, planning] in anticipation of the next rollout phase.

After Start-up Period 1 [4G/5G Rollout and Mortality]
Following “UP 1,” the pace of 4G/5G deployment is increasingly influenced by a country’s size and topography [deployment pace, rural areas, and smaller towns], the pace of 4G/5G reuse of older mobile bands (3G/2G shutdown), etc.

Geopolitical realities are also beginning to play an increasingly significant role in relation to the background, start, and development of the Russia-Ukraine war [XG war, drones, etc.].

The factors listed above influenced mortality trends and the EMRate for each country individually, which is reflected to some extent in the more varied distribution of mortality rates among countries up until the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, only to return to a more varied distribution pattern some time afterward.

However, all countries [East, West] experienced very high to extremely high EMRate median values over the time period, with the exception of high values in Sweden (+3.5%), Romania (+4.3%), Latvia (+4.3%), and Lithuania (+4.5%). No country experienced moderate or low median values [measurement period 2020–2024].

During the measurement period, the U.S. had the highest median EMRate (+16.4%) of all countries surveyed; it should be noted that as of now [Dec. 2025], countries in the Western world—including those not included in this survey—continue to have high to extremely high mortality rates [EMRate].

BOTTOM CHART – EASTERN EUROPE

The Eastern European countries shown in the lower graph followed the same strategy as the Western world, as shown in the upper graph — 5G rollout in densely populated areas — with the difference, however, that these countries’ rollout phase began about half a year after the West [starting in October 2020], primarily due to a weaker starting point in terms of mobile network infrastructure and deployment.

Expansion of the 3G/4G Network
With regard to mortality trends in Eastern Europe, our research findings indicate that the slow rise in mortality during the first half of 2020 points to a relatively rapid expansion of mobile network infrastructure [optical fiber, base stations, hardware and software updates] involving simple functional tests of installed hardware [mature technology] to ensure functionality and coverage before presentation to the customer. Since commercial/customer-related 5G technology was not yet available in Eastern Europe during that time period, the rollout was likely presented as 3G and/or 4G.

Hardware and Software Updates (5G/4G+)
After that, mortality rates level off for a few months [summer 2020–], though with an elevated EMRate, as newly installed and compatible systems are updated with hardware and software ahead of the rollout phases of the 5G systems.

Startup Phase 1
The large-scale rollout of 5G infrastructure began in October 2020, causing mortality rates to skyrocket even in Eastern Europe through May 2021. Differences in countries’ levels of maturity regarding mobile infrastructure (XG deployment) explain the greater variation in mortality rates over time [Median period 1].

Startup Phase 2
This is followed by Phase 2 of the mobile network expansion, during which new hardware and infrastructure are built or updated, resulting in lower mortality rates, only to then surge again [August 2021] in connection with the startup and commissioning of the newly installed or updated 4G+/5G nodes.

Exception Albania
Albania worked intensively to expand its mobile network with 4G/4G+ installations—to pave the way for future 5G deployments—due to having the worst starting point of all Eastern European countries in terms of mobile infrastructure, hence the difference in the EMRate pattern. Furthermore, Albania’s EMRate median value (+13.8%) for the entire measurement period was the second-highest among all reported countries, driven primarily by the period before the start of the Russia-Ukraine war and the restrictions related to the “U.S. Security Agreement” and “Chinese mobile infrastructure.”

The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War [US Security Agreement]
Following the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine [February 24, 2022], pressure from the U.S., NATO, and the EU intensified to avoid using Chinese products in mobile networks [U.S. Security Agreement] for security reasons [eavesdropping, espionage, etc.]. Since Eastern European countries are major users of, among other things, Huawei’s [Chinese company] hardware and software in their mobile networks, 5G expansion came to a halt and excess mortality rates dropped significantly. A few months later [January 2023], pressure intensified further [from the U.S., NATO, and the EU] to avoid Chinese network products, and since then, Eastern European countries have had a comparably lower EMRate.

Note. Western countries [TOP GRAPH] also use Chinese mobile infrastructure, which is why similar patterns can be observed, albeit to a lesser extent; our dependence on these products is therefore lower, and an active campaign is underway to replace Chinese network technology with U.S.-approved mobile technology, infrastructure, and software.